Quantifying land-use change impacts on the dynamic evolution of flood vulnerability

Recently, dramatic flood disasters have occurred incrementally in several regions of the world. Land-use change as one of the main affecting factors becomes a key component in flood risk management. This study strives to deal with quantifying how changes in land use to affect the dynamic evolution of flood vulnerability. The floodplains of Wuhan, which are located in the Yangtze River Basin, have been selected as an example. In this paper, we use GIS to gather different historical geometric data as sources of land-use information. By proposing the Simpsons-dominance index and location index to analyze the characteristics of land-use changes, and building a quantitative model to measure flood vulnerability, a series of flood vulnerability maps demonstrate differential flood vulnerability of floodplains of Wuhan in three inundation scenarios and four historical periods. Finally, the non-parametric correlation is used to reveal the interactive effect of land use and flood vulnerability. Based on this study, comprehensive flood disaster management strategies for land-use planning are proposed for government decision-makers to reduce the flood vulnerability of Wuhan in future.     

Bulgaria’s hyperinflation in 1997: transition,banking fragility and foreign exchange

This article has two objectives: to study the 1997 episode of hyperinflation in Bulgaria, and to compare and contrast this analysis with the post-Keynesian theoretical approach. This approach highlights the role of three components observed simultaneously in order to understand the emergence of hyperinflation: a virulent distributive conflict; the presence of indexing mechanisms; and finally, flight from domestic currency into one or more foreign currencies. The article reveals that a transitional economy like that of Bulgaria in the 1990s may generate hyperinflation in the absence of any violent distribution conflict: the transition and the banking crisis engender inflation. The foreign exchange rate is decisive in the emergence of hyperinflationary dynamics (and therefore mistrust of domestic currency). This interpretation of hyperinflation is confirmed by an econometric analysis.     

Property rights and groundwater management in the High Plains Aquifer

Groundwater is an important natural resource that needs to be managed dynamically. Ideally, institutions governing property rights to the groundwater of low-recharge aquifers should not discourage or disincentivize groundwater users from dynamic management. We develop an empirical model to examine whether agricultural groundwater users faced with prior appropriation property rights to groundwater in western Kansas exhibit dynamic, forward-looking behavior consistent with dynamic management. We find that although farmers are allotted a time-invariant maximum amount of groundwater that they can extract each year, they still behave in a manner consistent with dynamic management. Their groundwater extraction decisions are not significantly affected by the quantity they are authorized to extract, but are instead affected by expected future crop prices, expected future energy prices, and groundwater extraction by neighbors. Our results provide evidence that farmers manage their groundwater resource dynamically, even if their property rights do not necessarily encourage or incentivize them to do so.     

基于重大科技基础设施建设迈向一流大学的路径分析——复杂产品系统动态能力演化视角

科技强国和创新型国家建设越来越依赖于重大科技基础设施的支撑能力。当前我国高校承担重大科技基础设施任务大多处于在建阶段，符合高校特点的能力建设模式尚在探索中。通过对2007-2020年脉冲强磁场重大科技基础设施发展的纵向案例研究，建立复杂产品系统（CoPS）的动态能力演化分析框架，从技术能力和组织能力分析高校承担重大科技基础设施动态能力搜索—获取—转型的演化过程。研究发现，高校通过建立新型“举校”体制，发展自组织网络调动校内外组织和技术互补性资源，能够有效构建高校的复杂组织和技术能力，统筹提升科研成效、学生质量和教师质量，实现面向服务国家战略目标的转型，从而获得一流大学的持续竞争优势。     

A tourist kit ‘made in Italy’: An ‘intelligent’ system for implementing new generation destination cards

This study investigates the advantages and the potentiality of the ‘tourist kit’, an Italian solution based on the concept of a prepaid card that is issued by a large postal operator. The destination card can be reloaded by tourists according to their needs and its validity is not restricted to short periods. Thus, the kit provides tourists with an integrated, practical, and flexible tool capable of making their stay more enjoyable as it allows cardholders to choose and buy many products and services at discounted prices. The kit creates customer loyalty by utilising smart technology aimed at collecting accurate tourist information. This model deserves attention because it is probably the world's first case of a large postal operator entering the tourism sector with the proposal of an integrated and advanced destination card scheme. This research also discusses interesting opportunities and challenges related to the implementation of new generation tourist cards.     

基于DPSIR-TOPSIS的城市绿色转型评价及实证——以太原市为例

基于DPSIR模型,构建了包括驱动力、压力、状态、影响和响应5个方面的城市绿色转型评价指标体系,并将熵权法与TOPSIS法相结合确定指标权重。基于该评价指标系统,对2006—2014年太原市的绿色转型状况进行了评价与分析。结果表明:虽然太原市的绿色转型水平逐渐提高,但是整体效果处于一般水平,转型状况不太理想。     

Should sequels differ from original movies in pre-launch advertising schedule? Lessons from consumers' online search activity

Sequels have become a profitable strategy in the U.S. motion picture industry because of their strong name recognition. However, while the established positioning of a sequel may help insulate it from competing firms' advertising messages, its familiarity may cause moviegoers to be more easily satiated with advertising from the sequel. Therefore, this study examines how sequels differ from original concept movies in terms of their ad effectiveness. We focus our analysis on pre-launch periods, given these periods' importance in shaping the financial outcomes of motion pictures. We consider the weekly online search volume of a movie as a measure of consumer interest in it, and thus as an intermediate response to pre-launch advertising. We then develop a model that assumes ad effectiveness can decline, due to copy and repetition wearout, and increase, due to forgetting, over time. We find that copy wearout is greater for original movies, while repetition wearout and forgetting are greater for sequels. These findings suggest that sequels should allocate more in early pre-launch periods and less immediately before release, relative to originals, to maximize pre-launch consumer interest.     

Employer-provided training,innovation and skills in post-Soviet countries

This paper analyzes the extent of employer-provided training in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Ukraine and investigates its relationship with innovation, having international business contacts, use of computers at work, reported skills shortages and other firm characteristics. It contributes to the literature by examining different types of training – initial on-the-job learning, more formal in-house training and external training, which is provided by firms to two categories of workers – white- and blue-collar workers. After controlling for a range of firm characteristics, we find a positive link between technological innovation and intensity of training of all types provided to white-collar workers that points to the technology-skills complementarity. Furthermore, the level of computer use at work is a significant determinant of the incidence and intensity of external training provided to white-collar and blue-collar workers.     

ECONOMIC TRANSITION AND LABOUR MARKET DYNAMICS IN CHINA: AN INTERPRETATIVE SURVEY OF THE ‘TURNING POINT’ DEBATE

Has the Chinese economy approached the ‘Lewisian turning point’ that marks the ending of the initial phase of industrial transformation fuelled by surplus labour? In this paper we undertake an interpretative survey of the literature on this issue, in the context of China's labour market conditions prior to the reforms and structural change of the past three decades. The available evidence is mixed, and our assessment makes a strong case for probing institutional constraints to labour mobility from an economy‐wide perspective, going beyond the confines of the rural economy.     

Early Experience and Later Outcomes of Education: Schooling Transition Evidence from Indonesia

This paper investigates the effect of early school experience on later educational attainment. Using the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS), we find that students who repeat a grade at primary school are less likely to progress to junior high school. We also find that grade retention is associated with lower rates of transition from junior high school to senior high school. The relationship persists across years and samples. Meanwhile, the age of students when starting school and the hours they spend there have limited effects on whether they continue their schooling. We also observe that the effects of parental education and household income on the transition of students from primary school to junior high school are weakening. Given the long-term impact of grade retention, policymakers should be cautious when recommending it for underachieving children and should look for alternatives.